Foes, Allies Worry Trump Gets Boxed In 06/04 06:30

   

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump is facing warnings from foes and 
allies alike that he's getting boxed in on the Iran war, a conflict he sold as 
a brief military incursion but that has since settled into a holding pattern.

   It's been nearly a week since U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 
tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire in the conflict by 60 days and 
start a new round of talks on Iran's nuclear program that required Trump's sign 
off.

   But Trump has called for unspecified changes to the agreement and Iranian 
officials -- perhaps calculating that the Republican president is reluctant to 
restart the bombardment after burning through key weapons systems -- are 
showing no signs they'll give in to new demands.

   A series of strikes by the U.S. and Iran this week has raised fresh concern 
that the ceasefire could collapse. Trump on Wednesday downplayed the 
significance.

   "It's a different part of the world," Trump told reporters in the Oval 
Office. "You know, I'd say in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when 
you're shooting in a more moderate manner."

   The shaky moment follows repeated claims by Trump since a 14-day ceasefire 
was agreed to on April 7 -- following 38 days of U.S. and Israel bombing of 
Iran -- that a deal is just days away and the Iranian side is begging to come 
to a settlement. Trump on Wednesday said it was possible something could come 
together "over the weekend."

   Without an interim settlement in place to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,global 
energy prices remain elevated and are adding to anxieties around the world 
about the impact of rising costs spurred by the three-month conflict on the 
cost of food, fuel and other goods.

   After a string of reports this week that Iran was shutting down talks, Trump 
told CNBC he "couldn't care less" if the negotiations had bogged down and even 
mused they had become "boring."

   There's anxiety Trump is getting boxed in

   There's growing concern inside the administration and among key advisers and 
allies that Trump now finds himself in a bind, according to a U.S. official and 
another person familiar with the administration's internal deliberations, both 
of whom spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss 
private conversations.

   He's buffeted by Democrats seizing on oil prices and warnings from hawkish 
members of his base that an early exit from the conflict would amount to 
capitulation.

   Trump is privately hearing from other Republican lawmakers as well as 
Pentagon officials and Gulf allies that a return to the bombing campaign is a 
bad idea.

   Those advising against returning to military action note that the U.S. has 
burned through munitions at too fast of a rate. It could take three years to 
replenish some key weapons systems.

   Meanwhile, Gulf allies are worried that Iran will retaliate against them and 
their critical infrastructure and energy interests and further set back their 
economies.

   At the same time, Trump has bristled at the idea of accepting a deal that 
resembles the 2015 nuclear agreement brokered by Democrat Barack Obama's 
administration, which restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting 
international economic sanctions.

   Trump during his first term abandoned the pact that he said had failed to 
permanently stop Iran's nuclear program, ignored Iran's ballistic missile 
development, and did not penalize Iran for supporting militant proxy groups 
across the Middle East.

   Now, Trump, according to those familiar with internal deliberations, has 
made clear he feels strongly he can't make "a bad deal" and is acutely aware 
that he's at a moment where he's at risk of tarnishing his legacy if he 
missteps.

   White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the notion that Trump has been 
boxed in or that there's any concern within the administration about the pace 
of talks.

   "These mysterious so-called 'administration officials' have no idea what 
they're talking about -- those actually involved in sensitive discussions know 
to trust in President Trump, who will always do what is best for U.S. national 
security," Kelly said in a statement.

   Trump resisted Israel push for Lebanon bombings

   Israeli and hawkish allies in Washington have made the case to Trump that a 
deal at this point would amount to unconditional surrender, urging him to 
ratchet up economic pressure on Iran and back Israel's assault on the Hezbollah 
militant group in Lebanon.

   But Trump earlier this week in a heated call with Israeli Prime Minister 
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded Israel stand down, and on Wednesday, Israel and 
Lebanon said they agreed to renew a ceasefire. Hezbollah was not part of the 
Israel-Lebanon talks, which have been held at the ambassadorial level in 
Washington since the beginning of last month.

   Remaining in the current status quo with Tehran -- neither a full resumption 
of hostilities nor sealing an interim agreement to restart nuclear talks -- is 
a situation that Iran appears better poised to exploit, argues Behnam Ben 
Taleblu, a senior fellow at the hawkish Washington think tank Foundation for 
Defense of Democracies.

   Despite being the weaker party, Iran appears to be calculating that the 
longer the holding pattern lasts, the better the chances are they can "box in" 
Trump, he added.

   "Either way, Tehran appears more resolute than ever to not provide Trump 
with a victory image, hence why it isn't budging on the battlefield or 
negotiating table," Taleblu said.

   Holding pattern isn't helpful for Republicans on the ballot

   At the same time, Democrats are trying to capitalize on Trump's handling of 
the unpopular war ahead of November's midterm elections. The House of 
Representatives on Wednesday for the first time passed a symbolic resolution 
calling for a halt in military action against Iran, with four Republican 
lawmakers joining Democrats in the rebuke of Trump's war.

   During hours of hearings on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday with 
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Democrats laced into Trump for discounting the 
economic impact of the conflict on Americans and for failing to anticipate that 
Iran would shutter the Strait.

   In one tense exchange, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker pointed to the 
unsteady ceasefire as a sign that Iran has the upper hand.

   "We are the strongest nation on the planet Earth, and we're in a stalemate 
with Iran," Booker said. "And now we're begging to get back into a deal that 
you all trashed in the first place."

   Rubio dismissed the criticism, underscoring that Iran has been placed on its 
heels with the strikes that have taken out multiple layers of senior leadership 
and left Iran's economy in shambles.

   "There's no one begging," Rubio responded. "I don't know where you're 
getting this perception that Iran is stronger."

   Another Democrat, Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, homed in on Trump's 
comments last month that voter anxiety about the cost of living was "not even a 
little bit" of a motivating factor for him to reach a deal to end the war.

   The president continues to downplay the rising costs for Americans at the 
pump and predict that gas prices would fall sharply after the conflict ends.

   Christopher Borick, the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of 
Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, said that Democrats running in swing districts 
around the country are already zeroing in on Trump's rhetoric on the war's 
impact on Americans' pocketbooks.

   "There's significant risk in having this thing drag on for Republicans," 
Borick said. "It's certainly going to hurt if Trump ends up in a place where 
the war ends and Iran's nuclear program is in the same place. But for 
Republicans in some of these tough swing districts, there's a case to be made 
to rip the bandage off now, get some easing in the oil markets and hope there's 
enough time for voters to turn the page."