I Might be getting out of 'My Lane' a little?
9-9-26
First the part that is in my lane, the earliness of the crop is being confirmed by field visits. As we get into next week, there will be a few fields ready for defoliation and by the 21st, we should be able to find a number of fields ready, particularly the early planted, lighter land and lower rainfall areas. I think the holdup is going to be how busy we are going to get finishing up corn and digging peanuts such that defoliating cotton could take third place. (Just keep soybeans fourth.)
Now for going out on a limb, and if you want to stop reading, now would be a good time. This is just some perspective. It's about this 'Super El Nino' that's considered likely to appear by winter. We agricultural types worry the late part of the fall will be at risk as well. At least in terms of rainfall. I think it is reasonable to agree that we could see November offer more rainfall than we have had for several years, Odds on above rainfall is reported to be around 40% for our region, but that also means it is 60% that it would not be 'above normal'. However, even normal rainfall can cause delays and we have gotten a little used to having below normal rainfall. So the stronger odds look like a 73% chance exists that it will be normal or above normal, and around a quarter chance it will stay dry.
However, the media loves to hype up the extremes so get ready for that. For me, I think we can probably continue to move along in a safe way the best we can and expect success. Or at least hope for it.
I would not recommend jumping the gun, but as much as is reasonable, stay up with defoliating your cotton. It could be a good year to get cotton out of the field as soon as is reasonable and it will also keep the micronaire lower to defoliate on time comapred to waiting.
Follow the updates on the Defoliation Guidelines on our Log in side of the web page.
Defoliation in September is Likely
9-2-2026
This Summer has been hot for 3 months in a row. Getting a hot month seems normal for most years, but having uniquely hot weather for 3 months is more rare. The Peanut/Cotton Infonet has reported that we passed 2000 DD-60’s as of September first plus the first week of September still carries high 90 temperatures. That has happened before and these are the years that we can find fields that are ready for defoliation in the middle to late September. The dry weather has caused some of our top crops to shed off that will also increase the earliness of the crop. There has been a good bit of shedding on the sandy soils as well as the areas with the lowest rainfall during the last three weeks.
EVALUATING TOP BOLLS
Fields that held on to some top bolls are going to be common as well as fields that did not. I think some factors that will complicate the defoliation decision is how variable the land is in a field or whether or not you had some rain late in August that caused just a few top bolls to stick on that are isolated and immature at the top of the plant. If there are enough of these, it might pay to wait. I would expect around 25 immature bolls that are easy to mash and are watery would end up being around 75-100 pounds of lint if you waited about 3 more weeks beyond the main crop for those few to mature. We call those phantom bolls when it is well into October because they just don’t mature much but in September, so this year, it's going to be a little more of a decision. Some folks might try and wait on this. Others would say it's not worth delaying harvest because it would be possible to lose several hundred pounds from a November northeaster if we have some unwelcomed late fall weather.
Normal Rules Still apply
Using NACB, tan to brown seed coats in top bolls and percent of open bolls are all still valid. Planting dates will also be a factor but soil type is a bigger deal. In variable fields with significant amounts of good soil mixed in with Light spots, I would disregard the light spots and make the decision on the better areas that will higher bolls.
DISCLAIMER: The data contained herein is for informational, conversational, and philosophical thinking and is for general purposes only. Ideas expressed apply to the Uppter Southeast growing region. AlthoughII the information was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable, we do not in any way guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Comments are influenced by past experiences, personal bias and hypothetical speculation by the writer and are not always accurate predictors of future events. Specific references to Agricultural Products and Rates are used for examples and do not reflect specific endorsement or recommendations for use. Always read and follow all label directions and precautions for use. We disclaim any responsibility for any errors or omissions contained herein. FULL DISCLOSURE: There is no compensation received by Johnny to promote any product referenced with in this blog. Johnny is a paid employee of Commonwealth Gin
